Testable Predictions
The Holistic Universe Model produces specific predictions about astronomical values that differ from conventional theory. These predictions can be tested against future observations.
All predictions are based on measurements from the 3D model. Every prediction on this page originates from values measured directly in the 3D Simulation — not from theoretical assumptions. The simulation produces raw data (year lengths, day lengths, precession periods, orbital parameters) using objective measurement functions; the predictions here follow from that data. See Analysis & Export Tools for how measurements are taken.
Predictions are grouped by timeline - how soon they could potentially be tested. Some require decades of observation; others require centuries.
Near-Term Predictions (Decades)
These predictions could show measurable differences within the next 50-200 years.
1. Axial Precession Period Will First Stabilize, Then Decrease
Current theory: The axial precession period is already decreasing and will continue to do so until year ~10,000 AD (per Capitaine et al. formula).
Model prediction: The axial precession period will remain relatively stable in our lifetime before starting to decrease — because we are currently crossing the mean obliquity point. After reaching a minimum, the period will increase again, unlike the Capitaine formula which predicts continued decrease.
The key difference: Current theory predicts the period is already decreasing steadily. The model predicts a near-term plateau followed by decrease, and an eventual reversal (increase) that the Capitaine formula does not predict. The underlying cause is the interaction between lengthening day and shortening solar year.
2. Mercury’s “Missing” Perihelion Precession Will Decrease
Current theory: Mercury’s perihelion precession includes a ~43 arcsecond/century contribution from relativistic effects (General Relativity). This value has been stable at ~43″ since Newcomb’s 1882 measurement.
Model prediction: The “missing” precession may be due to Earth’s wobble on its Axial Precession Orbit rather than space-time curvature.
What actually changes: Mercury’s precession can be measured against two reference directions (both in the ecliptic plane):
- ~575″/century — relative to fixed stars (ICRF), the inertial frame defined by distant quasars
- ~5,604″/century — relative to the moving vernal equinox (~575 + ~5,029 equinox drift from Earth’s axial precession)
The equinox-based value (~5,604″) is what was historically measured on Earth. The model predicts this value will decrease by ~4.5″/century:
| Year | Relative to moving equinox (geocentric) | Relative to fixed stars / ICRF (heliocentric) | “Anomaly” (derived) |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2000 AD | ~5,601″ (~572.54 + 5,029) | ~572.54″ | ~38.82″ |
| 2100 AD | ~5,597″ (~568.09 + 5,029) | ~568.09″ | ~34.38″ |
The ICRF values (~575″) and anomaly (~43″) are derived by subtracting the equinox drift. Since the Newtonian contribution (~532″) is constant, the “anomaly” decreases accordingly.
Falsifiability: This is a clear test between the two interpretations:
- If geocentric precession remains constant at ~575 + 5,029 = ~5,604″/century: Standard GR explanation is supported, model’s alternative is refuted
- If geocentric precession decreases from ~5,601″ toward ~5,597″/century: Model’s explanation is supported
Near-term test — BepiColombo: ESA’s BepiColombo mission enters Mercury orbit in November 2026, with science operations starting early 2027. The model predicts BepiColombo will measure ~574.69″/century or lower versus MESSENGER’s 575.31″/century — a difference of 0.62″/century, which is ~400× larger than MESSENGER’s measurement uncertainty (±0.0015″/century). This makes it the quickest available test of the model’s Mercury prediction.
See Mercury Precession: The BepiColombo Test for a detailed breakdown of the two possible outcomes and what each would mean for the model. See also Scientific Background for the full scientific discussion including academic critiques.
3. RA at Maximum Declination Will Shift from 6h
Coordinate system note: In standard precessing equatorial coordinates, the June solstice is at RA 6h by definition. This prediction refers to the Sun’s position in a fixed reference frame (ICRF) at maximum declination.
Current observation: The Sun’s maximum declination (June solstice), when expressed in ICRF coordinates, occurs near Right Ascension 6h.
Model prediction: This ICRF position peaked at exactly 6h in 1246 AD and is now slowly shifting. By ~6,000 AD, the June solstice RA (in ICRF) will be ~5h58m22s.
| Property | Value |
|---|---|
| Mean RA at max declination (fixed frame) | ~5h48m50s / ~17h48m50s |
| Oscillation amplitude | ±11 minutes |
| Cycle period | 41,736 years |
| Peak value | ~6h00m00s (reached in 1246 AD) |
| Predicted value by 6,000 AD | ~5h58m22s |
The underlying pattern follows a 41,736-year cycle driven by obliquity and inclination interference:
What this predicts: The model claims that the Sun’s celestial position at the moment of maximum declination, when expressed in ICRF coordinates (not precessing equatorial coordinates), varies slightly over millennia. This would manifest as a very small timing offset in when the Sun reaches its northernmost point relative to the fixed stars.
Verification method: Testing requires:
- Expressing the Sun’s position in ICRF at each solstice
- Tracking whether the ICRF position varies systematically over centuries
- Precision of ~1 arcsecond over centuries (currently achievable)
If the position shifts systematically by ~1-2 arcseconds per century, it would support the model.
This may relate to long-term variations in magnetic declination , though the connection is speculative.
4. Jupiter and Saturn Perihelion Trends Will Continue
Current prediction (WebGeocalc): Jupiter and Saturn’s perihelion precession rates are predicted to change pattern.
Model prediction: The current trends will simply continue as-is without pattern change.
Medium-Term Predictions (Centuries)
These predictions would become measurable over several centuries.
5. Obliquity
Current theory: Obliquity (23.4392° in 2000 AD) will decrease until year 13,900 AD, reaching a minimum of ~22.6° (per Chapront et al. & Laskar formulas).
Model prediction: The model agrees with current theory through year ~11,800 AD. The obliquity will reach minimum ~22.21° and then rise again.
6. Longitude of Perihelion
Current theory: J. Meeus’s formula calculates longitude of perihelion, with solstice-perihelion alignment in 1246 AD.
Model prediction: The model matches Meeus’s formula closely until ~3000 AD. After that, values diverge significantly.
7. Gregorian Calendar Drift
Current situation: The Gregorian calendar year (365.2425 days) doesn’t match the actual solar year (~365.24219 days).
Model prediction:
- By year 6463 AD: June solstice will be on June 20, 06:00 UTC
- By year 11,680 AD: June solstice will be on June 18, 00:00 UTC (3.5 days earlier than today)
8. Analemma Shape Changes
Current understanding: The analemma (figure-8 pattern of the Sun’s position) depends on perihelion position, eccentricity, and obliquity.
Model prediction: The analemma will shift forward in time with the perihelion precession cycle. Its width changes with eccentricity (20,868-year cycle), while its length changes with obliquity (fluctuating between 22.21° and 24.71°).
Long-Term Predictions (Millennia)
These predictions distinguish the model from conventional theory over thousands of years.
9. Eccentricity (Key Differentiator)
Current theory: Earth’s orbital eccentricity (0.01671 in 2000 AD) will decrease toward ~0 by year ~27,000 AD.
Model prediction: Eccentricity will reach minimum of ~0.0139 much earlier - around year 11,680 AD - and then increase again.
Why this matters: This is a sharp divergence from current theory. If eccentricity begins rising around 11,680 AD, it would be strong evidence for the model.
10. Inclination
Current theory: Earth’s inclination to the invariable plane (1.578° in 2000 AD) will decrease, but no minimum is predicted.
Model prediction: Inclination will decrease to minimum ~0.848° in year 32,548 AD, then increase again in a 111,296-year cycle.
11. Earth Rotation / Length of Day / Delta-T
Current theory: Earth’s rotation is generally slowing due to tidal friction, causing the mean solar day to grow longer than 86,400 SI seconds.
Model prediction: The opposite - Earth’s rotation will speed up (LOD will decrease) until ~11,680 AD, then slow down again.
Delta-T implications: We need to start adding negative leap seconds. The model predicts this trend will reverse.
Sidereal day and stellar day implications: Both sidereal day and stellar day follow the same cyclical pattern as solar day.
12. Solar Year Length in Days
Current theory (Laskar): Solar year in days is slowly decreasing until year 10,900 AD (based on fixed 86,400-second day).
Model prediction: Solar year in days will increase until 13,800 AD because day length changes with the cycles.
13. Sidereal Year in Seconds
Current theory (Chapront et al.): Sidereal year in seconds is slowly increasing until year 15,600 AD.
Model prediction: The sidereal year in seconds is fixed at 31,558,149.724 seconds - it’s the anchor point of the model.
14. All Precession Movements Are Related
Current theory: Different precession movements (ecliptic, axial, etc.) are largely unrelated to each other.
Model prediction: All precession movements are related and follow a clear pattern repeating every 20,868-year perihelion cycle.
Structural Predictions
These predictions relate to the model’s framework rather than time-varying parameters.
15. Invariable Plane Tilt
Model prediction: Earth’s path relative to the invariable plane has a mean tilt of ~1.481592° with amplitude ~0.634°. This specific value should be observable and shared by all planetary movements.
Additionally, Jupiter and Saturn precession will be found to be directly connected:
- Jupiter’s precession = Determines Earth’s Ecliptic precession
- Saturn’s precession = Determines Earth’s Obliquity cycle
Climate Prediction
16. Temperature Trends
Model prediction: As inclination tilt decreases and axial tilt approaches its midpoint, the warmer period will end, transitioning toward a longer ice age period.
Climate is influenced by many factors (solar cycles, volcanic activity, human impact). This prediction concerns the long-term orbital contribution to climate patterns.
Summary: Verification Pathways
| Prediction | Timeframe | Type |
|---|---|---|
| Mercury geocentric precession decrease (~5,601→~5,597″) | Decades | Differs from GR prediction |
| RA shift from 6h | Centuries | New observable |
| Jupiter/Saturn perihelion trend | Decades | Differs from WebGeocalc |
| Eccentricity minimum at 11,680 AD | Millennia | Key differentiator |
| LOD/Delta-T reversal | Decades | Differs from current theory |
| Invariable plane tilt 1.481592° | Structural | New observable |
The quickest ways to test this model would be:
- BepiColombo data (~2027): The model predicts ~574.69″/century or lower versus MESSENGER’s 575.31″/century — a 0.62″/century difference, ~400× larger than measurement uncertainty
- Observing the breaking precession trend for Length of Day
- Noticing the RA at max obliquity beginning to shift from 6h
- Monitoring Mercury’s geocentric precession (~5,601″/century) — the model predicts decrease toward ~5,597″; GR predicts it stays constant at ~5,604″
Only time will tell if these predictions prove correct.
Many of these predictions can be verified using the formulas on the Formulas page. For the underlying derivations, see Formula Derivation.
Continue to Mathematical Foundation for detailed derivations and data sources.