Predictions

The Holistic Universe Model produces specific, testable predictions about astronomical values that differ from conventional theory. These predictions can be tested against future observations.

Near-Term Predictions (Decades)

These predictions could show measurable differences within the next 50-200 years.

1. Mercury’s “Missing” Perihelion Precession Will Decrease

Current theory: Mercury’s perihelion precession includes a ~43 arcsecond/century contribution from relativistic effects (General Relativity). This value has been stable at ~43″ since Newcomb’s 1882 measurement.

Model prediction: The “missing” precession may be due to Earth’s wobble on its Axial Precession Orbit rather than space-time curvature.

What actually changes: Mercury’s precession can be measured against two reference directions (both in the ecliptic plane):

• ~575″/century — relative to fixed stars (ICRF), the inertial frame defined by distant quasars
• ~5,604″/century — relative to the moving vernal equinox (~575 + ~5,028.8 equinox drift from Earth’s axial precession)

The equinox-based value (~5,604″) is what was historically measured on Earth. The model predicts this value will decrease by ~5.0″/century:

The ICRF value (~575″) is not directly measured — it is derived from the geocentric measurement (~5,604″) by subtracting the equinox drift (~5,028.8″). The “anomaly” (~43″) is then obtained by subtracting the Newtonian contribution (~532″). Since the Newtonian contribution is constant, the “anomaly” decreases if the geocentric rate decreases.

Falsifiability: This is a clear test between the two interpretations:

• If geocentric precession remains constant at ~575 + 5,028.8 = ~5,604″/century: Standard GR explanation is supported, model’s alternative is refuted
• If geocentric precession decreases from ~5,598.26″ toward ~5,592.85″/century: Model’s explanation is supported

Near-term test — BepiColombo: ESA’s BepiColombo  mission arrives at Mercury on 21 November 2026 (delayed from Dec 2025 due to thruster issues), with routine science operations starting April 2027. The MORE (Mercury Orbiter Radio science Experiment) instrument will measure Mercury’s orbit with 1–2 orders of magnitude better precision than MESSENGER. The model predicts BepiColombo will measure ~574.61″/century or lower versus MESSENGER’s 575.31″/century — a difference of 0.70″/century, which is ~500× larger than MESSENGER’s measurement uncertainty (±0.0015″/century). This makes it the quickest available test of the model’s Mercury prediction, provided BepiColombo’s analysis pipeline reports the raw measured perihelion advance rather than a GR-inclusive ephemeris fit total — see the BepiColombo test methodology.

See Mercury Precession: The BepiColombo Test for a detailed breakdown of the two possible outcomes and what each would mean for the model. See also Scientific Background for the full scientific discussion including academic critiques.

2. RA at Maximum Declination Will Shift from 6h

Current observation: The Sun’s maximum declination (June solstice), when expressed in ICRF coordinates, occurs near Right Ascension 6h.

Model prediction: This ICRF position peaked at exactly 6h in 1246.03125 AD and is now slowly shifting. By ~6,000 AD, the June solstice RA (in ICRF) will be ~5h58m22s.

The underlying pattern follows a ~41,915-year cycle driven by obliquity and inclination interference:

What this predicts: The model claims that the Sun’s celestial position at the moment of maximum declination, when expressed in ICRF coordinates (not precessing equatorial coordinates), varies slightly over millennia. This would manifest as a very small timing offset in when the Sun reaches its northernmost point relative to the fixed stars.

Verification method: Testing requires:

1. Expressing the Sun’s position in ICRF at each solstice
2. Tracking whether the ICRF position varies systematically over centuries
3. Precision of ~1 arcsecond over centuries (currently achievable)

The current shift rate is ~17 arcseconds per century (accelerating as we move away from the 1246.03125 AD peak), well within modern astrometric precision.

3. Jupiter and Saturn Perihelion Trends Will Continue

Current prediction (WebGeocalc): Jupiter and Saturn’s perihelion precession rates are predicted to change pattern.

Model prediction: The current trends will simply continue as-is without pattern change.

The model predicts perihelion precession periods of H/5 = 67,063 years for Jupiter (prograde) and H/8 = 41,915 years for Saturn (retrograde) in the ecliptic frame, connected through the Fibonacci identity 3 + 5 = 8 (see Fibonacci Laws). Saturn’s observed ecliptic-retrograde rate is ~-3,400″/cy (WebGeoCalc), consistent with the model’s prediction.

The key disagreement: Standard theory attributes Saturn’s ecliptic-retrograde motion to a transient phase of the Great Inequality — an ~883-year oscillation from the Jupiter-Saturn 5:2 resonance — which should reverse within ~450 years. The model treats it as permanent. For Jupiter, the disagreement is in period: secular theory implies ~305,000 years vs the model’s 67,063 years. Jupiter’s observed inclination trend favours the shorter period (~3″/cy error vs ~8.5″/cy). See Supporting Evidence §13 and §9 for the full analysis.

Medium-Term Predictions (Centuries)

These predictions would become measurable over several centuries.

4. Obliquity

Current theory: Obliquity (23.4393° in 2000 AD) will decrease until year ~13,900 AD, reaching a minimum of ~22.6° (per Chapront et al. & Laskar formulas).

Model prediction: The model agrees with current theory through year ~13,700 AD. The next obliquity minimum lands at ~22.51° around year 13,665 AD, after which obliquity rises again on its ~41,915-year cycle. Both model and standard theory bottom out near the same epoch (~13,665–13,900 AD); they differ on what happens next — the model predicts a clean reversal back toward the mean, while polynomial extrapolations diverge.

The full long-term oscillation envelope over the Earth Fundamental Cycle is 22.21° – 24.72°, which closely tracks the simple mean ± 2A theoretical range of the two-cosine model — the H/3 (inclination) and H/8 (obliquity) components align tightly enough each cycle for the envelope to essentially reach its extrema. The high end (~24.72°) sits slightly above the mainstream Laskar maximum (~24.5°), which is a distinct model prediction worth testing against paleoclimate proxies.

5. Longitude of Perihelion

Current theory: J. Meeus’s formula calculates longitude of perihelion, with solstice-perihelion alignment in 1246.03125 AD.

Model prediction: The model matches Meeus’s formula closely until ~3000 AD. After that, values diverge significantly.

6. Gregorian Calendar Drift

Current situation: The Gregorian calendar year (365.2425 days) doesn’t match the actual solar year (~365.2422036 days).

Model prediction:

• By year 6486 AD: June solstice will be on June 17, 20:00 UTC
• By year 11,725 AD: June solstice will be on June 17, 10:00 UTC (4 days earlier than today)

7. Analemma Shape Changes

Current understanding: The analemma (figure-8 pattern of the Sun’s position) depends on perihelion position, eccentricity, and obliquity.

Model prediction: The analemma will shift forward in time with the perihelion precession cycle. Its width changes with eccentricity (~20,957-year cycle), while its length changes with obliquity (fluctuating between 22.21° and 24.72°).

8. Axial Precession Period Will Reach a Minimum, Then Increase

Current theory: The axial precession period is decreasing (Capitaine et al. 2003 polynomial formula).

Model prediction: The axial precession period is currently below the mean (~25,771 years vs mean ~25,794 years) and still decreasing. Both the model and the Capitaine formula agree on this current trend. The key difference: the model predicts the period will reach a minimum of ~25,312 years around year 12,431 AD, then rise again to a maximum of ~26,051 years around year 32,340 AD, then continue oscillating on the perihelion precession cycle. The Capitaine formula is a polynomial extrapolation that does not model this oscillation.

The key difference: Both agree the period is currently decreasing. The model predicts an eventual reversal (oscillation) that the Capitaine polynomial does not capture. The underlying cause is the interaction between lengthening day and shortening solar year.

Long-Term Predictions (Millennia)

These predictions distinguish the model from conventional theory over thousands of years.

9. Eccentricity (Key Differentiator)

Current theory: Earth’s orbital eccentricity (0.01671 in 2000 AD) will decrease toward ~0 by year ~27,000 AD.

Model prediction: Eccentricity will reach minimum of ~0.0140 much earlier - around year 11,725 AD - and then increase again.

Why this matters: This is a sharp divergence from current theory. If eccentricity begins rising around 11,725 AD, it would be strong evidence for the model.

10. Inclination

Current theory: Earth’s inclination to the invariable plane (1.57869° in 2000 AD) will decrease, but no minimum is predicted.

Model prediction: Inclination will decrease to minimum ~0.845° in year 32,682 AD, then increase again in a ~111,772-year cycle.

11. Earth Rotation / Length of Day / Delta-T

Current theory: Earth’s rotation is generally slowing due to tidal friction, causing the mean solar day to grow longer than 86,400 SI seconds.

Model prediction: LOD will slightly increase until ~5,823 AD, then decrease until ~22,718 AD, before increasing again. Short-term fluctuations (like the 2020–present speedup) occur around this long-term trend.

Delta-T implications: The model predicts LOD varies cyclically over millennia, which would affect the long-term accumulation of Delta-T.

Sidereal day and stellar day implications: Both sidereal day and stellar day follow the same cyclical pattern as solar day.

12. Solar Year Length in Days

Current theory (Laskar): Solar year in days is slowly decreasing until year 10,900 AD (based on fixed 86,400-second day).

Model prediction: Solar year in days will decrease until 12,394 AD.

13. Sidereal Year in Seconds

Current theory (Chapront et al.): Sidereal year in seconds is slowly increasing until year 15,600 AD.

Model prediction: The sidereal year in seconds is fixed at 31,558,149.76 seconds - it’s the anchor point of the model.

14. All Precession Movements Are Related

Current theory: Different precession movements (ecliptic, axial, etc.) are largely unrelated to each other.

Model prediction: All precession movements are related and follow a clear pattern repeating every ~20,957-year perihelion cycle.

Structural Predictions

These predictions relate to the model’s framework rather than time-varying parameters.

15. Invariable Plane Tilt

Model prediction: Earth’s path relative to the invariable plane has a mean tilt of ~1.48113° with amplitude ~0.63603°. This specific value should be observable and shared by all planetary movements.

Additionally, Jupiter and Saturn precession will be found to be directly connected:

• Jupiter’s precession = Determines Earth’s Ecliptic precession

• Saturn’s precession = Determines Earth’s Obliquity cycle

Saturn is unique among the planets: it is the only planet whose perihelion precesses obviously retrograde in the ecliptic frame (confirmed by JPL WebGeoCalc at ~-3,400 arcsec/century; see Supporting Evidence §13), and it is the only planet that is anti-phase — its cosine sign is flipped relative to all other planets. This places Saturn alone in the anti-phase group, while all seven other planets belong to the in-phase group. The full anti-phase alignment — Saturn at maximum while all others at minimum — occurs once per Solar System Resonance Cycle (8H). These two groups are not arbitrary: the angular-momentum-weighted inclination amplitudes of the in-phase group and the anti-phase group cancel to 99.9975%, keeping the invariable plane balanced. Saturn single-handedly carries the entire anti-phase side of this balance. The same two groups also satisfy an independent eccentricity balance condition (99.8632%). See Fibonacci Laws: Derivation for the full derivation.

In the 3D Simulation , you can explore this balance visually via Tools > Invariable Plane Inspector.

Climate Prediction

16. Temperature Trends

Model prediction: As the inclination tilt effect decreases and the axial tilt effect approaches its midpoint, the warmer period will end, transitioning toward a longer ice age period.

17. Planet Obliquity Cycles (Two-Component Structure)

Model prediction: Every planet with an obliquity cycle follows the same two-component structure as Earth. The obliquity is the sum of two cosines with equal amplitude — one at the ICRF perihelion period (inclination component, negative sign) and one at the obliquity cycle period (positive sign):

obliquity(t) = mean − A × cos(ICRF period) + A × cos(obliquity cycle)

Three obliquity cycles are already confirmed by observation:

Three remain as testable predictions:

Venus and Neptune have obliquity cycle = |ICRF perihelion period| (auto-derived from their ecliptic periods; tidally damped). The two-component formula cancels exactly, producing constant obliquity — consistent with observations (Venus tidally damped at 177°, Neptune frozen at ~28°).

Mean obliquity: The formula midpoint (around which the two-cosine oscillation is centered) typically shifts slightly from the J2000 snapshot. Most planets have midpoints within ±0.2° of their J2000 values. See Obliquity: A Universal Pattern for the full analysis.

Summary: Verification Pathways

The quickest ways to test this model would be:

1. BepiColombo data (~2027): The model predicts ~574.61″/century or lower versus MESSENGER’s 575.31″/century — a 0.70″/century difference, ~500× larger than measurement uncertainty (if the analysis pipeline reports the raw measurement; see the BepiColombo test methodology)
2. Noticing the RA at max obliquity beginning to shift from 6h
3. Monitoring Mercury’s geocentric precession — the model predicts decrease; GR predicts it stays constant

Only time will tell if these predictions prove correct.

← Supporting Evidence