The predictions of the Holistic Universe Model
Having a theory is one, showing it in a 3D model is two, making comprehensive calculations in Excel is three, but the actual proof of the pudding is making predictions about future values. Below a number of predictions that can be tested in time.
-
Obliquity prediction
According to the current theories the obliquity is 23.4392298806° in year 2000 AD and will decrease until year 11,800 AD with a minimum of ~22.6° according to Obliquity Formula calculations taken from Chapront et al. (2002) & J. Laskar’s. For reference to the formula see Wikipedia axial tilt and by the way the attached picture on Wikipedia is not fully in accordance with the formula.
My prediction is the obliquity will indeed be completely similar as according to the current theory. Then it will start rising again.
-
Inclination prediction
According to the current theories the inclination is 1.57869° in year 2000 AD and will decrease. As far as I know there are no predicted values to a minimum. There are however theorized historic values. See this graph coming from this paper for more details.
My prediction is the inclination will decrease to its minimum of ~0.931° in year 29,200 AD. Then it will start increasing again.
The actual mean duration of inclination precession is 99,392 years which is showing on climate graphs (the 100k driver).
-
Orbital Eccentricity prediction
According to the current theories the eccentricity is 0.01671022 AU in year 2000 AD and will decrease to ~0 by year ~27,000 AD. See e.g. the graph on the Wikipedia page .
My prediction is the eccentricity will decrease to its minimum of ~0.01061807 AU already in year ~10,564 AD. Then it will start increasing again.
The theoretic orbital eccentricity in the current model is different from the predictions in this model. So if the orbital eccentricity will rise again in year ~10,564 AD it will be a clear indicator of the correctness of this model.
-
Analemma prediction
The Analemma is related to the Equation of time, causing length differences of a day throughout the year. It’s current shape is the result of three attributes: the perihelion/aphelion points, the eccentricity and the obliquity. In year 2000 AD 21 June 00:00 UTC the dates of perihelion were around 3rd of January (closest to Earth) and aphelion around 4th of July (Furthest from Earth) AND Eccentricity 0.01671012 AND obliquity 23.4392298806°.
NOTE: The effect of the Analemma has nothing to do with speed differences due to eccentricity.
My prediction is the Analemma will move forward in time in the same timeframe as the perihelion precession. This will result in the Anemella-famous-8-figure to be more equally divided. Because the eccentricity also follows the perihelion precession the effect on the WIDE of the Analemma is a repeating cycle. However because the obliquity is fluctuating between ~22.36° and ~24.58° in the 298,176 years period, this has an effect on the LENGTH of the Analemma in a specific 18,636 year cycle.
NOTE: This explanation about the Analemma helped me to understand it. He however shows some strange forms of the Analemma that will never take place. The shape will move forward and backward in the shapes as shown above.
-
The Sun max obliquity at RA 6h / 18h prediction
The Sun max obliquity on the Northern hemisphere on 21st of June is at RA 06:00 or on the southern hemisphere on 21st of December at RA 18h and seems to be quite stable.
The reason is the Axial and Inclination tilt difference will have an impact on the RA value of solstices in a 37,272 year cycle.
The mid value of the RA value for max. obliquity is ~5h48m50/ ~17h48m50 and fluctuates ~11 minutes up and down in this pattern.
The pattern of the RA fluctuation (purple) is the result of the Inclination (blue) and Obliquity (amber) interfering with each other.
Each and every time the two movements cross each other, the RA pattern flips.
It might be an explanation for the movement of the Magnetic declination .
My prediction is the max obliquity has reached its max value of ~6h in 1246 AD and will slowly decrease in time. At one moment in time it will start to become visible for scientists and by ~6,000 AD the max obliquity on the Northern hemisphere on 19th of June will already be at ~5h58m22s instead of 6h00m.
I could however not find any direct reference about this prediction of changing RA values in the current theories of our solar system. It is definitely not observed yet so, if this happens it will be a clear indicator of the correctness of this model.
-
Distance Earth to Sun prediction
According to this article the Earth is drifting away from the Sun by 15 cm per year. Which means the definition of the AU needs to be redefined at one moment in time.
Additionally it does not only concern our Earth but also all the planets See article . The article reads the perihelion was 1.5 cm further away than the year before. The explanation provided can be very complex.
some more background on the validation of these numbers
Alternatively you can have a look at the answers perplexity provides
I don’t think the 15cm per year is correct.
My prediction is the MEAN distance from Earth to Sun as defined by the AU unit will increase until 5905 AD and then start decreasing again. It will follow the same pattern as the length of the sidereal year in seconds.
The difference between the minimum value around year 3413 BC of 149,597,868.9 km and the max value around year 5904 AD of 149,597,871.8 km is however only 2.88 km. The mean value is 149,597,870.35 km.
-
Gregorian calendar prediction
Currently the Gregorian calendar is aligned on the March Equinox date of 21st of March. Since the current length of solar year (~365.24219) is not the same as the Gregorian value of 365.2425, this alignment will change which will have an impact on the equinoxes and solstices dates.
My prediction is the Gregorian calendar will fall further behind. In year 5904 AD the June solstice will be on 20th of June 06:00 UTC. After year 5904 AD the year length will be above the MEAN value of a solar year but still below the Gregorian value, so by the year 10,564 AD solstice will be around 18th of June 00:00 UTC. 3.5 days earlier than today’s value.
-
The longitude of perihelion prediction
According to the current theories the longitude of perihelion was aligned with solstice in 1246 AD. The astronomer J. Meeus has drafted a formula for it.
My prediction is only from year 3000 AD the formula from J. Meeus and the values from the Holistic Universe Model will slightly differ.
-
The axial precession prediction
According to the current theories – like the formula Capitaine, et.al. - the length of the axial precession is decreasing in time until year 10,000 AD.
My prediction is however the precession will already start to increase IN OUR LIFETIME.
Since the length of day is increasing and the length of solar year in days is decreasing and they combined determine the length of the solar year in seconds, there is a turning point in time where one effect takes over the other.
Currently the length of day is a little bit behind the prediction due to the cyclic behaviour, but once the length of day follows the normal path, the solar year in seconds will start to increase.
Additionally the length of sidereal year in seconds remains quite stable, so the effect will show axial precession to increase.
This is a really a clear indicator of the correctness of the model that can be tested in our lifetime.
-
The length of all other precession movements
According to the current theories almost all known precession movements are unrelated to each other. So precession of the ecliptic is unrelated to the axial precession. I do not think that is right. ALL precession movements are related to each other.
My prediction is there is a clear pattern which relates all precession movements to each other in a perihelion cycle of 18,636 years.
-
Earth’s Rotation / Length of Day (LOD) / ΔT cycles prediction
According to the current theories the rotation of the Earth itself is irregular and is in general experienced to be slowing down, with respect to more stable time indicators: specifically, the motion of planets, and atomic clocks. Since the era of the observations, the rotation of the Earth has slowed down and the mean solar second has grown somewhat longer than the SI second (the slowing down is not a linear so might differ per year but the trend is the rotation to slow down). As a result, the time scales of Terrestrial time (Time measured against the fixed stars) and UT1 (Time measured as Earth rotation) build up a growing difference: the amount that TT is ahead of UT1 is known as ΔT, or Delta T . As of 5 July 2022, TT is ahead of UT1 by 69.28 seconds.
My prediction is the slowing down of the rotation of Earth (slower spinning) will continue as-is until ~3800 AD. We will need around ~23,000 LEAP SECONDS if we want the length of day to keep up with 86,400 SI seconds a day until that time.
-
The length of a solar day prediction
According to the current theories the solar day will increase in time (see previous topic on the Earth rotation).
I agree the solar day increase but this will only continue until 3800 AD and after that will start to decrease again.
-
The length of a Sidereal day prediction
According to the current theories the sidereal day will increase in time (see previous topic on the Earth rotation).
My prediction is the length of a Sidereal day will follow the same pattern as the Solar day. I have created an overview what will happen with the length of a sidereal day and stellar day.
-
The length of a solar year in days prediction
According to the current theories – like the formula J. Laskar - the length of the solar year in days is slowly decreasing in time until year 10,900 AD. This prediction is however based upon a fixed length of day of 86,400 seconds a day.
My prediction is the solar year in days will decrease until 5905 AD.
-
The length of a sidereal year in seconds prediction
According to the current theories – like the formula J.Chapront, M.Chapront-Touse, & G.Francou - the length of the sidereal year in seconds is slowly increasing in time until year 15,600 AD.
My prediction is the length of the sidereal year in seconds will increase until year 5905 AD.
-
Temperature prediction
For long term temperature patterns, it is best to look at what happened 298,176 years ago. But that will not give a complete picture. Earth’s climate might also be impacted by Sun cycles, volcano eruptions, meteor impacts, fires, environmental impact humans, etc.
My prediction is - as the Inclination tilt is decreasing, we will be slowly but steadily move into colder periods of time. The Axial tilt is currently also decreasing and almost past its mid-point (year 2092 AD will be important!) so slowly the decrease will come to a halt. These combined movements indicate the warmer period will end.
The length of day cycles will additionally be shown to be the main driver for climate on Earth. These cycles are however not straight forward. It goes with ups and downs. Earth current values of the Length of day seems to reach a minimum stretched value compared to the trend line of the Length of Day and as a result will reach the turning point.
Climate change is real. As historic records shows, the climate always has changed. It is never fixed. Both trends indicate we will be moving into a much longer and fearful ice age.
We live in unprecedented times but the warmer period will end. We should be more worried about the winter that is ahead of us .
-
The Inclination tilt will be discovered prediction
As mentioned in chapter 5, the invariable plane is tilted with a mean value of ~1.4951° with an amplitude of ~0.564°.
My prediction is some astronomer will confirm Earth’s movement on its path of the invariable plane.
There are no theories at all for this very specific feature of the Holistic Universe Model which really could confirm the correctness of the model.
-
The missing perihelion precession of Mercury will turn out to be due to Earth’s wobble prediction
Mercury theorized perihelion precession based upon the gravitational laws is ~531 arc seconds movement compared to Earth’s movement (~5028 against ICRF). It’s observed value is ~575 arc seconds (~5600 against ICRF). The missing predicted value for the perihelion movement due to relativity theory is ~43 arc second.
My prediction is once the observation tools improve, the perihelion precession movement of Mercury will turn out to solely to be contributed by Earth’s movement along the Axial Precession Orbit.
The missing perihelion advance will also increase in time because Mercury perihelion will move faster in the coming centuries.
These are very bold statements totally contradicting the current theories but flows out of this model.
-
The June Solstice in year 2092 AD might provide answers
The EARTH-WOBBLE-CENTER is located at the MEAN obliquity of 23.42727°, In year 2092 the Sun will reach this point.
My expectation is this is an important year in which we will cross the mid axial point of Earth resulting in the ice age that is ahead of us.
As can be seen a lot of predictions can be made with this model, but on a lifetime span it will be hard to proof the full correctness of the Holistic Universe Model.
The predicted increase of axial precession will however be the first step to proof the model. But even if this happens, it cannot proof the full model.
The only real way to proof this model completely is if someone will notice the RA value will change OR confirm the ~1.4951° tilt towards the galactic center of the Milky way OR precession calculated in real length of day will start increasing again.
Else…only time will tell…